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Big News : COVID-19 Vaccine Is Coming

After nine months of chaos and the deaths of more than 1 million people worldwide, we may soon have a vaccine for the deadly coronavirus. More than 150 vaccines have been developed (about 40 vaccines in the final stages of clinical trials) and one coronavirus vaccine is expected to launch later this year, but most experts believe we will only get the vaccines by mid-2021.

Big News : COVID-19 Vaccine Is Coming

Vaccination is one thing and its distribution is another. At least in the first few days, there will not be enough doses for everyone and the question arises as to who should be vaccinated first. Even if we reach a consensus on a goal to save as many lives as possible, there may not be a clear answer. The weaker vaccine may make sense for the virus because almost all deaths occur in groups 65 and older.

However, there are detailed details of how epidemics are treated in an unconscious way and how viruses or vaccines affect different individuals who carry different weights. Concentrating resources can also bring many benefits. Before we get a vaccine, we need to do more research on how to spread it.

Experts have drafted guidelines for creating the vaccine soon. A World Health Organization advisory team recommends that we focus on protecting the elderly and most at-risk workers, primary health care, and groups in densely populated urban environments.

The National Academy of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine has provided a framework for the fair distribution of each vaccine, according to a report released Friday. It essentially confirms its authenticity, adding it to the WHO team's list of staff in key industries such as food and public transport.

These guidelines focus mainly on using vaccines to protect people targeted by the virus rather than using vaccines to slow the spread of the virus. But it helps: the less the virus spreads, the less vulnerable people need protection. Indeed, several epidemiological studies in the right conditions have shown that vaccinating the most vulnerable populations is not the right choice.

A pilot study published in 2009 examined influenza vaccination strategies and concluded that the best policy depends in many ways on various measures, including death and economic costs.

If the vaccine is only effective in a certain amount, and about 50% of the vaccine has been vaccinated, the best way is to focus on the most vulnerable population.

If the vaccine is less effective, even after most people have been vaccinated, it cannot prevent the virus from spreading further, so people at risk need direct protection

Studies show that the amount of vaccine available is also important. If only a small number of doses are available, it is best to vaccinate the most at-risk people. Spreaders are best targeted if a certain percentage of the population is vaccinated, as the level of resistance obtained may counteract the spread of the virus, although the amount required depends on the ease with which the virus is transmitted.

This study is for the flu, not for CVID-19, so its findings are for consultative purposes only. However, I used data from the 1918 and 1957 flu epidemics for comparison. The recent epidemic was similar to the coronavirus, and the death toll for the elderly was very one-sided. In this case, the researchers found that the best strategy was to target the most vulnerable communities, vaccinating young people and children to limit the spread of the virus.

As far as we know, no one has published similar research on current coronaviruses. There are other studies that suggest that stopping the spread of the virus should be part of a vaccine distribution. For example, German physicists have recently used a rational statistics model that can be very useful in concentrating vaccination efforts on existing hotspots (such as certain cities).

If good evidence is available that can be used to vaccinate against the rapid spread of the virus in that area, they estimate that the total number of deaths from the outbreak could be reduced by about half.

Of course this is a mathematical model. However, this is very similar to previous studies on influenza: it is important to stop the infection by focusing on vaccinations in specific areas of nature or in specific social groups.

Protection is the only part of vaccination. Much will depend on what primary vaccine we have. However, the best way to stop the virus is not limited to the most vulnerable ones. We will need a more sophisticated approach to identifying places and groups 

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